Nuclear power worldwide: status and outlook

Nuclear power is expected to raise to a maximum of 679MWe to a minimum of 447MWe from the present 370MWe by 2030.Nuclear power's share of worldwide electricity production rose from less than 1 percent in 1960 to 16 percent in 1986, and that percentage has held essentially constant in the 21 years since 1986.The IAEA report released on October 23, 2007 reviews the status of nuclear power worldwide.

K.S.Parthasarathy


Public release date: 23-Oct-2007

Contact: Press Office
press@iaea.org
0043-126-002-1273
International Atomic Energy Agency
Nuclear power worldwide: status and outlook
A report from the IAEA

The IAEA makes two annual projections concerning the growth of nuclear power, a low and a high. The low projection assumes that all nuclear capacity that is currently under construction or firmly in the development pipeline gets completed and attached to the grid, but no other capacity is added. In this low projection, there would be growth in capacity from 370 GW(e) at the end of 2006 to 447 GW(e) in 2030. (A gigawatt = 1000 megawatts = 1 billion watts)

In the IAEA's high projection -- which adds in additional reasonable and promising projects and plans -- global nuclear capacity is estimated to rise to 679 GW(e) in 2030. That would be an average growth rate of about 2.5%/yr.

"Our job is not so much to predict the future but to prepare for it, " explains the IAEA's Alan McDonald, Nuclear Energy Analyst. "To that end we update each year a high and low projection to establish the range of uncertainty we ought to be prepared for."

Nuclear power's share of worldwide electricity production rose from less than 1 percent in 1960 to 16 percent in 1986, and that percentage has held essentially constant in the 21 years since 1986. Nuclear electricity generation has grown steadily at the same pace as overall global electricity generation. At the close of 2006, nuclear provided about 15 percent of total electricity worldwide.

The IAEA's other key findings as of the end of 2006 are elaborated below.

There were 435 operating nuclear reactors around the world, and 29 more were under construction. The US had the most with 103 operating units. France was next with 59. Japan followed with 55, plus one more under construction, and Russia had 31 operating, and seven more under construction.

Of the 30 countries with nuclear power, the percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear ranged widely: from a high of 78 percent in France; to 54 percent in Belgium; 39 percent in Republic of Korea; 37 percent in Switzerland; 30 percent in Japan; 19 percent in the USA; 16 percent in Russia; 4 percent in South Africa; and 2 percent in China.

Present nuclear power plant expansion is centred in Asia: 15 of the 29 units under construction at the end of 2006 were in Asia. And 26 of the last 36 reactors to have been connected to the grid were in Asia. India currently gets less than 3% of its electricity from nuclear, but at the end of 2006 it had one-quarter of the nuclear construction - 7 of the world's 29 reactors that were under construction. India's plans are even more impressive: an 8-fold increase by 2022 to 10 percent of the electricity supply and a 75-fold increase by 2052 to reach 26 percent of the electricity supply. A 75-fold increase works out to an average of 9.4 percent/yr, about the same as average global nuclear growth from 1970 through 2004. So it's hardly unprecedented.

China is experiencing huge energy growth and is trying to expand every source it can, including nuclear power. It has four reactors under construction and plans a nearly five-fold expansion by just 2020. Because China is growing so fast this would still amount to only 4 percent of total electricity.

Russia had 31 operating reactors, five under construction and significant expansion plans. There's a lot of discussion in Russia of becoming a full fuel-service provider, including services like leasing fuel, reprocessing spent fuel for countries that are interested, and even leasing reactors.

Japan had 55 reactors in operation, one under construction, and plans to increase nuclear power's share of electricity from 30 percent in 2006 to more than 40 percent within the next decade.

South Korea connected its 20th reactor just last year, has another under construction and has broken ground to start building two more. Nuclear power already supplies 39 percent of its electricity.

Europe is a good example of "one size does not fit all." Altogether it had 166 reactors in operation and six under construction. But there are several nuclear prohibition countries like Austria, Italy, Denmark and Ireland. And there are nuclear phase-out countries like Germany and Belgium.

There are also nuclear expansion programmes in Finland, France, Bulgaria and Ukraine. Finland started construction in 2005 on Olkiluoto-3, which is the first new Western European construction since 1991. France plans to start its next plant in 2007.

Several countries with nuclear power are still pondering future plans. The UK, with 19 operating plants, many of which are relatively old, had been the most uncertain until recently. Although a final policy decision on nuclear power will await the results of a public consultation now underway, a White Paper on energy published in May 20071 concluded that "…having reviewed the evidence and information available we believe that the advantages [of new nuclear power] outweigh the disadvantages and that the disadvantages can be effectively managed. On this basis, the Government's preliminary view is that it is in the public's interest to give the private sector the option of investing in new nuclear power stations."

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1 http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/whitepaper/page39534.html

The US had 103 reactors providing 19 percent of the country's electricity. For the last few decades the main developments have been improved capacity factors, power increases at existing plants and license renewals. Currently 48 reactors have already received 20-year renewals, so their licensed lifetimes are 60 years. Altogether three-quarters of the US reactors either already have license renewals, have applied for them, or have stated their intention to apply. There have been a lot of announced intentions (about 30 new reactors' worth) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is now reviewing four Early Site Permit applications.

For further information, please contact: IAEA Division of Public Information, Media & Outreach Section 43-1-2600-21273 .

For further details on the current status of the nuclear industry, go to IAEA's "Power Reactor Information System,"(PRIS).

Video B-roll is available on request.

Audio Q & A with IAEA Nuclear Energy Analyst, Alan McDonald and UN language editions of this press release are available under the following link http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/PressReleases/2007/prn200719.html

Quantitative PET imaging finds early determination of effectiveness of cancer treatment

PET imaging can demonstrate the effectiveness of cancer treatment.This imaging modality will reveal reduction in metabolism of cells killed by chemotherapeutic agents

K.S.Parthasarathy



Public release date: 23-Oct-2007

Contact: Maryann Verrillo
mverrillo@snm.org
703-652-6773
Society of Nuclear Medicine
Quantitative PET imaging finds early determination of effectiveness of cancer treatment
Visual analysis of PET Scans for non-Hodgkin lymphoma may be improved by using standardized uptake value in monitoring response to treatment, say researchers in October Journal of Nuclear Medicine

RESTON, Va.—With positron emission tomography (PET) imaging, seeing is believing: Evaluating a patient’s response to chemotherapy for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) typically involves visual interpretation of scans of cancer tumors. Researchers have found that measuring a quantitative index—one that reflects the reduction of metabolic activity after chemotherapy first begins—adds accurate information about patients’ responses to first-line chemotherapy, according to a study in the October issue of the Journal of Nuclear Medicine.

“In our study, we demonstrated that a quantitative assessment of therapeutic response for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is more accurate than visual analysis alone when using the radiotracer FDG (fluorodeoxyglucose) with PET scans,” said Michel Meignan, professor of nuclear medicine at Henri Mondor Hospital in Creteil, France. “The ability to predict tumor response early in the course of treatment is very valuable clinically, allowing intensification of treatment in those patients who are unlikely to response to first-line chemotherapy,” he added. “Similarly, treatment could possibly be shortened in those patients who show a favorable response after one or two cycles of chemotherapy, and quantification also may help identify the disease’s transformation from low-grade to aggressive stage,” he explained. “However, visual interpretation of PET scans will always be the first step of analysis and will prevail in case of difficulties to quantify images,” added Meignan.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma is a fast-growing, aggressive form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a cancer of the body’s lymphatic system. Although there are more than 20 types of NHL, DLBCL is the most common type, making up about 30 percent of all lymphomas. In the United States, about 63,190 people are expected to be diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 2007, according to recent statistics.

Ninety-two patients with DLBCL were studied before and after two cycles of chemotherapy, and tumor response was assessed visually and by various quantitative parameters, explained the co-author of “Early 18F-FDG PET for Prediction of Prognosis in Patients With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma: SUV-Based Assessment Versus Visual Analysis.” Meignan said, “We found that quantification of tumor FDG uptake (the ratio of tissue radioactivity concentration) can markedly improve the accuracy of FDG PET for prediction of patient outcome.” Additional studies need to be done, said Meignan, reiterating that the future monitoring of cancer tumor response will probably include a combination of quantitative analysis and visual assessment.

PET is a powerful molecular imaging procedure that uses very small amounts of radioactive materials that are targeted to specific organs, bones or tissues. When PET is used to image cancer, a radiopharmaceutical (such as FDG, which includes both a sugar and a radionuclide) is injected into a patient. Cancer cells metabolize sugar at higher rates than normal cells, and the radiopharmaceutical is drawn in higher amounts to cancerous areas. PET scans show where FDG is by tracking the gamma rays given off by the radionuclide tagging the drug and producing three-dimensional images of their distribution within the body. PET scanning provides information about the body’s chemistry, metabolic activity and body function.

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“Early 18F-FDG PET for Prediction of Prognosis in Patients With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma: SUV-Based Assessment Versus Visual Analysis” appears in the October issue of the Journal of Nuclear Medicine, which is published by SNM, the world’s largest molecular imaging and nuclear medicine society. Additional co-authors include Chieh Lin, Alain Luciani and Alain Rahmouni, Department of Radiology; Emmanuel Itti and Gaetano Paone, Department of Nuclear Medicine; and Corinne Haioun and Jehan Dupuis, Department of Hematology, all at Henri Mondor Hospital in Créteil, France; and Yolande Petegnief and Jean-Noël Talbot, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tenon Hospital in Paris, France.

Credentialed press: To obtain a copy of this article—and online access to the Journal of Nuclear Medicine— please contact Maryann Verrillo by phone at (703) 652-6773 or send an e-mail to mverrillo@snm.org. Current and past issues of the Journal of Nuclear Medicine can be found online at http://jnm.snmjournals.org. Print copies can be obtained by contacting the SNM Service Center, 1850 Samuel Morse Drive, Reston, VA 20190-5316; phone (800) 513-6853; e-mail servicecenter@snm.org; fax (703) 708-9015. A subscription to the journal is an SNM member benefit.

About SNM—Advancing Molecular Imaging and Therapy

SNM is an international scientific and professional organization of more than 16,000 members dedicated to promoting the science, technology and practical applications of molecular and nuclear imaging to diagnose, manage and treat diseases in women, men and children. Founded more than 50 years ago, SNM continues to provide essential resources for health care practitioners and patients; publish the most prominent peer-reviewed journal in the field (Journal of Nuclear Medicine); host the premier annual meeting for medical imaging; sponsor research grants, fellowships and awards; and train physicians, technologists, scientists, physicists, chemists and radiopharmacists in state-of-the-art imaging procedures and advances. SNM members have introduced—and continue to explore—biological and technological innovations in medicine that noninvasively investigate the molecular basis of diseases, benefiting countless generations of patients. SNM is based in Reston, Va.; additional information can be found online at http://www.snm.org.

UT rheumatologists discover 2 genes related to disabling form of arthritis

Genetics of arthritis



John D. Reveille, M.D., University of Texas Medical School at Houston.



Public release date: 21-Oct-2007
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Contact: Meredith Raine
Meredith.Raine@uth.tmc.edu
713-500-3030
University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston
UT rheumatologists discover 2 genes related to disabling form of arthritis

HOUSTON – (Oct. 22, 2007)—Work done in part by researchers at The University of Texas Medical School at Houston has led to the discovery of two genes that cause ankylosing spondylitis, an inflammatory and potentially disabling disease. The findings are published in the Oct. 21 online edition of Nature Genetics, a journal that emphasizes research on the genetic basis for common and complex diseases.

John D. Reveille, M.D., professor and director of the Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunogenetics, in conjunction with Matthew A. Brown, M.D., professor of immunogenetics at Australia’s University of Queensland, led research done by the Triple “A” Spondylitis Consortium Genetic Study (i.e. the TASC or Australo-Anglo-American Spondylitis Consortium).

The international team of researchers worked with investigators from the British Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, and together they made the genetic discovery.

Reveille, chief of rheumatology at Memorial Hermann – Texas Medical Center, said the discovery of genes ARTS1 and IL23R brings the scientific community two steps closer to fully understanding ankylosing spondylitis or AS, a chronic form of arthritis that attacks the spine and also can target other joints and organs in the body.

“We’ve long known that the HLA-B27 gene accounts for 40 percent of the overall cause of AS,” said Reveille, the principal investigator of TASC. “Now we have found two new genes. Together with HLA-B27, these genes account for roughly 70 percent of the overall cause. That means we’ve almost nailed this disease. Within the next year, I predict we will have identified all the genes that play a role in this insidious disease. There is more exciting news to come.”

The recent discovery is based on work from the largest and most comprehensive genome-wide association scan conducted to date. In this part of the research project, investigators were searching for genetic information related to AS, as well as autoimmune thyroid disease/Graves’ Disease, breast cancer and multiple sclerosis. Reveille, the George S. Bruce, Jr. Professor in Arthritis and Other Rheumatic Diseases, said the most significant findings were in AS, a disease that generally strikes patients in their teens, 20s or 30s.

ARTS1 and IL23R show a new pathway of causation, Reveille said, and this could lead to new therapies for the arthritic condition, which can cause a complete fusion of the spine, leaving patients unable to straighten and bend.

The identification of the two new genes also could help physicians identify patients who are at the highest risk for developing AS.

“For example, if you have a family member with AS, a simple blood test would be able to tell us if you are also at risk,” Reveille said. “We could offer screenings for people with back pain. In the past, the HLA-B27 test was all we had. Now we potentially have more tests.”

Steve Haskew, who has lived with AS for thirty years, said the genetic discovery offers hope to patients – especially those who are newly diagnosed.

“When I first started experiencing problems – lower back pain, the aching joints – no one could tell me what was wrong,” said Haskew, 59, co-leader of an AS support group that meets every other month at the UT Medical School at Houston. “It took 10 years before a rheumatologist diagnosed me with AS. Back then, there weren’t many options. I was told to take anti-inflammatories and stay as active as possible. It’s fascinating to see how far we’ve come and how much has been learned about the disease since then.”

The research done by Reveille and his colleague Xiaodong Zhou, M.D., associate professor of medicine in Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunogenetics, was supported in part by the Center for Clinical and Translational Sciences (CCTS) at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston.

“This is a success story for genetics work, and I think it will lead the way for other work to be done,” Reveille said.

The Spondylitis Association of America (SAA) oversaw the nationwide recruitment of patients and families for the study.

“This is the most significant breakthrough in AS genetic research since HLA-B27 was uncovered 34 years ago, and SAA played a significant role in making the study possible,” said SAA Associate Executive Director Laurie Savage, who is co-principal investigator for TASC’s administrative core.

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